Post by Sowelu on Aug 4, 2011 22:52:02 GMT -5
ONE DOWN, TWO TO GO: As predicted by analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab, the first of three CMEs produced by the recent spate of flare activity reached Earth during the late hours of August 4th. The impact was weak and is not expected to produce strong geomagnetic storms. Two more CMEs are still on the way and, as described below, they may have merged into a single cloud that could produce significant storming when they reach Earth on August 5th around 10:00 UT. A new model of all 3 CMEs is now available; stay tuned for updates.
STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: For the third day in a row, active sunspot 1261 has unleashed a significant M-class solar flare. The latest blast at 0357 UT on August 4th registered M9.3 on the Richter Scale of Flares, almost crossing the threshold into X-territory (X-flares are the most powerful kind). The number of energetic protons around Earth has jumped nearly 100-fold as a result of this event.
The eruption propelled a bright coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. Click on the image to view a movie of the expanding cloud recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:
Note: The many speckles in this movie are caused by energetic solar protons hitting the camera.
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Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up an earlier CME already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 10:00 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER." High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Found here
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